2017年土地科学研究重点进展评述及2018年展望 ——土地管理领域分报告

研究目的：归纳分析2017年国内外土地管理领域的研究进展，展望研究趋势。研究方法：文献统计法。研究结果：2017年国内外在土地制度改革、土地权属与登记以及土地政策法律三个方面有着共同研究焦点。国外研究关注了土地管理与管制问题，国内研究主要围绕农村“三块地”改革、不动产登记政策效应和配套法律存在的问题、农村土地确权政策绩效和存在的问题、农村土地“三权分置”的法律关系、土地财政与土地违法和土地腐败等之间的关系、土地用途管制与耕地保护以及土地管理学科研究等方面。研究结论：2017年土地管理领域研究仍基于实践导向的探索、总结与凝练，围绕农村土地制度改革路径、土地管理体制机制与政策效应研究有所发展。2018年将重点关注农村土地制度三项改革试点成效和修法研究、农村土地“三权分置”的政策绩效和法律关系、租购并举及集体土地建设租赁住房的体制机制、土地管理供给侧结构性改革、自然资源资产管理体制和耕地保护政策与生态补偿机制研究等。     

Optimal allocation of direct and embodied arable land associated to urban economy: Understanding the options deriving from economic globalization

Land resources do not flow directly but can be allocated as “embodied land” in goods and services during economic globalization. The term “embodied arable land” can help link local land allocation strategies to the global and national supply chains and trade activities, and suggest new lens in optimizing arable land allocation. China is facing a serious arable land shortage, especially in municipal administrative areas. Based on the nested input-output analysis (Nested IOA), this work takes Shanghai as an example, exploring the allocation of direct and embodied arable land of an urban economy within the process of economic globalization. The amount of embodied arable land associated with Shanghai economy is 6.09 Mha, broken down into local arable land use (0.20 Mha), domestic inflows (3.20 Mha) and foreign inflows (2.69 Mha). This area supports local final demand (4.32 Mha), domestic outflows (1.24 Mha) and foreign outflows (0.53 Mha). Land-related imbalances emerge in the study, namely the economy’s demand versus the city’s size, the arable land demand versus supply, and embodied arable land inflows versus outflows. Regarding the role of the urban economy in allocation of global arable land under economic globalization, on the one hand, Shanghai has intensively involved with a large amount of embodied foreign arable land resources, and has been heavy dependent on foreign embodied arable land; On the other hand, there is still large potential for Shanghai to take the opportunity of economic globalization for an optimal allocation of direct and embodied arable land. Policy suggestions on taking the opportunity of economic globalization for an optimal allocation of direct and embodied arable land are put forward.     

The trade-offs between economic efficiency and job creation in olive grove smallholdings

Cooperation among farmers is an effective alternative to reduce production costs in smallholdings of traditional olive groves and increase their low profitability. However, an increase in efficiency reduces working hours and the labour required for the management of farms. This fact can lead to negative effects in rural areas, especially considering the importance of the social aspect of the crop. Therefore, to contribute to the global discussion on the transition towards more sustainable farming, it is important to know, ex ante, what level of employment is generated by olive groves and what could be lost under more competitive and efficient scenarios. The purpose of the work is to quantify the expected impact on employment by the implementation of cooperative management methods in order to generate true and accurate information that can be used in the design of future policies that aim to increase the economic profitability of small olive farms. The results make clear that this way of managing farms, by increasing the efficiency of agricultural work, has a significant negative impact on employment. However, this management formula does encourage the professionalisation of the sector by generating quality employment, in addition to contributing to the preservation of small farms and the socio-cultural and territorial benefits they generate.     

Rural Residential Land Transition in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region: Spatial-Temporal Patterns and Policy Implications

Rural residential land transition (RRLT) dominates rural land use transition. Therefore, analysing the laws of transition and differentiation of land use is not only the basis for the differential management of rural residential areas but key to the sustainable use of rural land. This study constructs a conceptual model of RRLT using multi-period remote sensing monitoring data based on a comprehensive index method, ArcGIS, and FRAGSTATS landscape pattern analysis, among others. It also analyses the characteristics of the transition extent, transition trend, transition morphology, and transition intensity of rural residential land in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region from 1980 to 2018. The results show that, from a vertical comparison of long time series, the transition extent is characterised by a process of ‘slow growth—expanding start—fast expansion—slowing down’; the transition trend is characterised by an increase in the amount of cultivated land occupied by rural residential land, followed by a large number of rural residential land is reclaimed as cultivated land; the transition morphology is characterised by an increase in mean patch size and degree of irregularity, as well as aggregation; and the transition intensity is characterised by fluctuations in the process of ‘small-scale reduction—small-scale growth—substantial growth—small-scale growth and reduction’. A horizontal comparison of counties in the BTH region reveals a long-lasting and active growth trend in transition extent and transition intensity in the Beijing-Tianjin region, and a gradually slowing trend in the areas around the region. The transition morphology features of the northwest Hebei region are more prominent, and show that the scale of rural settlements is small, the plaques fragmented and irregular, and the layout more scattered. The BTH region should formulate a differentiated transition direction for rural residential areas based on the different functional areas, and play into the agglomeration, scale, and synergy effects of urban agglomerations. It should also coordinate and improve the human–land relationship in rural areas, and construct an orderly and densely distributed pattern of urban and rural spatial development with a reasonable layout and complementary functions.     

What lies beneath: Climate change,land expropriation,and zaï agroecological innovations by smallholder farmers in Northern Ghana

Large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) are increasing in Ghana amid a weak legal and regulatory framework. This paper explores the impacts of this phenomenon on farmer innovations under recurrent environmental changes. Using a case study of zaï, an indigenous innovative farming practice, the paper makes two interrelated arguments. Firstly, it shows that the pervasive enclosures coerced by the Ghanaian state undermine how indigenous knowledge could be proactively deployed for climate risk management. Secondly, LSLAs produce a social barrier to climate change adaptation, as they lead to heightened uncertainty and apprehension among farmers, which affects decisions on climate risk management. More specifically, land expropriation is an example of how adaptation could be hindered by governance, institutions, and policy at the extra-local scale, including not only existing land use laws, but also the constitutional guarantee of private property. The evidence supporting these arguments come from survey data on 619 plots, 70 in-depth interviews, village-level transect walks, and participant observations. Overall, the paper contributes to emerging debates at the interface of land use policy, climate justice, and sustainable adaptation. Theoretically, it also contributes to understanding State-society relations, as well as the political economy of eminent domain, often justified through discourses of “public benefits.”     

Remote sensing-based detection of agricultural land losses around Greater Cairo since the Egyptian revolution of 2011

Over the last four decades, the loss of agricultural land has been observed in Egypt at high rates. However, the highest rates of losses have occurred since the January 25th revolution in 2011. Greater Cairo (GC), which is the largest metropolitan in Egypt, has witnessed a massive loss of agricultural land since the 2011 revolution. However, until now, no study or official report has revealed the volume of agricultural land losses in this region. This study quantifies agricultural land losses around the GC using Landsat satellite images from 2010 and 2018. Supervised classification was performed using the maximum likelihood algorithm in QGIS software. A post-classification comparison method was applied to detect the land use/land cover changes between the classified images; then, the loss of agricultural land was quantified using Arc GIS software. Visualizations of the gains and losses in agricultural land and the spatial trends of agricultural land losses were created using TerrSet software. The results show that 9600 ha of agricultural land were converted to urban use during 2010–2018, which means that the annual rate of agricultural land loss has tripled and now reaches approximately 1200 ha per year. Decay of executive authority, rapid population growth, real estate market speculation and fragmentation of agricultural land were the main driving factors of agricultural land losses during this period. The results of this research may help decision makers understand the current high rate of agricultural land loss. Hence, appropriate strategies may be adopted to prevent future losses of this valuable land.     

The factors influencing the profitability of leased land on dairy farms in Ireland

The Republic of Ireland possesses a land market that is constrained by minimal sales each year, less than 1%. In an effort to capitalise on milk quota abolition and to increase dairy production, a suite of tax incentives has recently been introduced in the Republic of Ireland to encourage land mobility and long-term leasing among Irish dairy farmers. Using Irish Farm Accountancy Database Network (FADN) data from 2011–2017 to examine this, a Heckman sample selection model explores two aspects; (i) the factors that influence a farmer’s decision to rent, or continue renting, land and (ii) the profitability of dairy farmers renting in land. We find self-selection into the rental market is driven by farm traits that include a high level of hired labour, the presence of a successor, intensive farming practices and dairy discussion group membership. The results show that rental agreements assist farms in achieving economies of scale. The findings provide evidence to support government intervention such as tax incentives for renting out land and knowledge sharing discussion groups.     

The State as Both Regulator and Player: The Politics of Transfer of Development Rights in China

The conventional argument that the introduction of transfer of development rights (TDR) shifts the power of land use regulation from the state to the market is increasingly under challenge. In China, the state's grip on land is reinforced through TDR, in which the state is both regulator and player. This state-dominated form of TDR affects China in three ways. First, competing aspirations of different scales of government complicate how TDR is implemented. Although the central state promotes TDR to maintain a national balance of arable land, some local states instrumentalize it to expand their landed basis of accumulation. Secondly, TDR tends to benefit the state but not its people. It may increase the fiscal income of the sending government and lessen the land shortage of the receiving government, but sometimes at the expense of the interests of land users without land ownership. Thirdly, given the state's deep involvement in TDR programs, the key for China's TDR to protect arable land lies not so much in clear property rights or a fully fledged market as in effective checks and balances regarding the state's powers over TDR. These three observations attest to the embeddedness of TDR in the local political economy.     

我国耕地保护政策研究：基于背景、效果与未来趋势

［目的］我国耕地保护政策对保护耕地、保障粮食安全具有重要意义。研究我国耕地保护政策出台的背景及前后关系、相同政策在不同区域内的执行效果差异，能够为更针对性地提出政策建议提供参考。［方法］主要运用了资料分析和定性描述的方法，首先按照耕地保护政策内涵划分为5个阶段，其次从时间、空间两个尺度，判断了耕地保护政策的数量、质量保护效果差异，最后提出了未来政策出台的方向和趋势。［结果］时间尺度上：1986年、1997年、2004年出台的政策对耕地数量保护的成效明显； 2014—2016年耕地质量保护效果略优于2009—2014年； 目前数量保护成效较好，但质量保护远未达到要求。空间尺度上：耕地数量保护效果西部地区最好，东北地区次之，中部地区优于东部地区； 耕地质量保护效果中部地区最佳，东北地区次之，东部地区优于西部地区。［结论］未来政策可向规范补充耕地全国统筹、完善耕地质量保护法律体系、调动农户保护耕地积极性等方向发展。     

Theoretical analysis and model design of search for ecological conservation redlines based on the sensitivity assessment of ecosystem services

Most small-scale social economies are characterised by their deficiency, lack, and/or difficulty in matching natural data. Against this backdrop, this paper builds a relatively uniform theoretical framework and designs a more economical and objective method for demarcating ecological conservation redlines (ECR) based on sensitivity assessment of ecosystem services. The results show that the sensitivity assessment model designed in this study can identify sensitive zones effectively, and that the ECR in Hubei Province are well within the sensitive zones so identified. The delimited areas based on the sensitive assessment of ecosystem services have great similarities (95%) with the actual ECR areas in Hubei Province. The most ecologically important functional zones (EIFZ) can also be identified using the regional ecological sensitivity coefficient. When the threshold of EIFZ is set higher, the probability that it falls within the ecologically sensitive areas is greater and the ECR delimited by the method proposed in this study will be more reliable. Theoretically, the delimitation of ECR can be inserted at any evaluation level with a grid resolution higher than that of the land use data, which can be used as a supplement to the ECR delimitation method in ecology or geography.